After 15+ years in seed-stage investing, I’ve lived through more than a few cycles—frothy highs, painful resets, a global pandemic and everything in between. One pattern never changes: bubbles happen.
And when they do, I’ve learned two lessons that matter most:
Be patient. Just because the market is running doesn’t mean you should. Seed is a long game, and rushing into overpriced deals rarely ends well.
If you can, take money off the table. Liquidity during a bubble is a gift. It’s less about timing the top perfectly, and more about de-risking when the opportunity presents itself.
At Laconia, we think a lot about valuation and check size at the seed stage. Our goal is to make sure companies raise enough to:
reach early product–market fit,
pressure-test an initial go-to-market strategy, while also looking ahead to ensure they are well positioned for a strong Series A.
and most importantly, get far enough to understand whether this could be a venture-scale business
Rounds that are overpriced—or sized incorrectly—at seed can quickly create “walking zombies.” Even strong companies with growth get stuck because the expectations from a large or mispriced seed round are often unrealistic.
We’ve also learned that capital efficiency and founder resilience matter most in turbulent markets. Founders who adapt quickly, use capital wisely, and stay focused on real customer traction are the ones who survive the cycle and emerge stronger on the other side.
We’re fortunate: our LP base doesn’t push us to deploy capital at all costs, and our infrastructure doesn’t force us to raise every 3–4 years just to cover expenses. That alignment gives us the patience to stay disciplined and the flexibility to focus on doing right by our founders and LPs.
Seed-stage investing isn’t about playing the short-term bubble. It’s about building through cycles, protecting business stability, and giving founders the best shot at long-term success.
